The formula behind Cashing Out consists of real-time odds and the full payment of the running bet.
The previous example shows that the Cash Out option at half-time was $140 instead of the full $280. Obviously, you’ll receive a lower payout from the Cash Out option compared to the total amount. However, if we look at it closer, it’s even lower than the “fair” amount as well.
You can check out the fair amount of Cash Out option with the following formula;
Full payment of the bet / real-time odds
When using the formula on the example above, we have;
$280 / 1.40 = $200
This indicates that Cashing Out at half-time would lose you $80 compared to the bet’s fair value at that point in time.
Also, keep in mind that bookies take commissions on the cashout, which is significantly higher than they used to take the bets. Therefore, you won’t receive the total $200, as there will likely be a 25% commission or even higher.
This is likely to be the case at any time and match, as the bookies are looking to use every opportunity to make money from the bets. In this case, they are ensuring they won’t lose more money from the bet.
The bookies are likely to have a margin on the odds and also a margin on the provided opportunity of the Cash Out. This is why we think Cashing Out may harm your long-term profitability and shouldn’t be part of your betting strategy.
However, there are specific conditions where Cashing Out may be an attractive option. Let’s look at more of this below.
When the Available Cash Out Option Exceeds the Market Price
There are small chances that the Cash Out option offers a higher value than the odds from bookies offer. It’s an indication that the provided Cash Out option is listed at a value above the fair price, which is indeed a favourable option you can take.
Acting Rationally and with High Values
As we’ve previously mentioned, your long-term betting plan should be to maximize profits by looking at all bets to the end of the game. This means that you should be aware of your bets’ happening as they unfold and look for the best options. Despite this being the case on almost every occasion, acting rationally should also be part of your strategy.
Cashing Out may be relevant when discussing bets that consist of a large amount of money or if a bet with extremely high odds is close to being fulfilled. During these situations, you can choose to act rationally and Cash Out with guaranteed payment.
For example, betting on a team with a lower chance of winning the league, with a $2,000 stake and 200.00 odds, is close to the end of the season. However, their performance has improved drastically and they’re a few games away from gaining the lead if they manage to keep up this playstyle.
Situations like these are where the Cash Out option might be a sensible thing to consider so you can get some guaranteed payment instead of risking being left with nothing.
The bet’s full payment would’ve been $400,000 with the cash out option at $200,000. However, the fair price would be the real-time odds of 1.80.
In this case, you should have received the actual value of $222,000. Therefore, the Cashing Out option might not be a bad idea even if you feel like you should’ve made more money. So, in case you’re in a big bet on Newcastle to win the Premier League with 200 odds and they are leading with 4 points and 2 matches to go, the Cashing Out option may be worth considering. However, you shouldn’t bet on it in the first place as the variance is sky-high. Also, 사설토토 take incredibly high margins on futures markets, which diminishes the value.
What’s the Formula that Lies Behind Cashing Out?